Main | October 2004 »

September 30, 2004

More On The Moore Conspiracy

Last night, on The Apprentice, I saw one of Sony's Fahrenheit 9/11 ads and I have to say that while I understand the concern that spots like the ones used to sell the movie in the first place, these spots don't include any images of George W. Bush or any of the mockery of the original sell.

Based on that, I'm not sure that I would agree that these spots should be kept off of network news air. After all, the content of the product is not where the judgment lies. In a case like F9/11, the ads themselves were political. But not anymore.

As much as I would like this to absolve Nikki Finke of being a bit of a hysteric on this, the fact that she was in such a rush to hang the conspirators, one of whom she is still suing, that she missed this key component… the nature of the ads themselves.

September 29, 2004

Lost?

Shouldn't it be called "Gilligan's Island With Supermodels?"

Nikki’s Vast Right Wing Conspiracy

Now that the Democrats have decided to aggressively campaign the idea that Dan Rather’s overeager, under-thought screw-up was part of a right wing campaign to concur the world, the conspiracy against Fahrenheit 9/11 – you may know the title as the $119 million grossing victim of the right – is apparently back on the list of talking points.

Nikki Finke, who does an excellent job scooping the news that the 3 major networks have all refused to run F9/11 ads during their “hard” news shows and that Sony Home Entertainment has no intention of advertising on any Fox outlets, then spins the story into a remarkably misguided political conspiracy that all but defines the mindset that seems to have already cost John Kerry any chance of being elected.

She writes, “For all the hundreds of thousands of words broadcast and written about so-called Rathergate, the news of Sonygate hasn’t received any attention at all.”

Well, could it be that “Sonygate” is not a big scandal because the networks aren’t accepting 527 ads from either side on their hard news shows either? (Of course, to Nikki, all Bush ads are attack ads and all Kerry ads are self-defense.) Could reasonable people of either side dare to dream that this actually suggests journalistic responsibility instead of a vast right wing conspiracy? Or could it be that no one is up in arms because these conspiratorial networks are accepting ads for the film on all of their entertainment programming?

So, whether attacking Disney, GE or Viacom, Nikki doesn’t want to linger on the fact that all three will make money on selling F9/11 on their networks. And on the cable nets? Is Sony Home Entertainment. buying ads on Viacom’s MTV or Comedy Central, where that right-wing fanatic Jon Stewart co-opts The Daily Show every night? Is S.H.E. buying ads on G.E.’s MSNBC or Disney’s partially-owned ESPN, A&E or E!? Did Nikki even ask?

I can’t answer any of these questions, but I am guessing that we’d be hearing about it if Sony Home Entertainment was barred from any of these nets, given that the blockade of about 10% or less or network airtime has unnamed Sony execs spinning like tops, according to our fair Nikki.

Do read Nikki’s piece for yourself. If you can take someone who writes, “Eisner had already given the Bushies the biggest gift of all: pulling the distribution plug on Fahrenheit 9/11,” seriously as a voice of reason in this argument, as Eisner gave Michael Moore and Harvey Weinstein and Team Lions Gate the biggest gift of all by giving them a handle with which to market this film into a $119 million domestic grosser with scores of millions more in profits coming from this poor downtrodden DVD release, you are a far, far less cynical soul than I.

Or perhaps you are, like Ms. Finke and so many people on the Hollywood’s fire-breathing left these days (Nikki actually wondered out loud whether her piece on Jay Leno leaning left led to his ouster… oy!), so outraged by the still-building consensus that John Kerry will fail in his race for the presidency, that you are willing to flail at any reason for that failure other than a poor campaign and, most painfully of all, the huge mistake that Kerry made in following Hollywood’s drama queen rage about Bush instead of running the affirmative campaign of ideas and principle that was his only chance of unseating a sitting president in the middle of a war.

Personally, I think Hollywood will have a lot to answer for if Bush wins this election. Kerry, who ironically has little to no chance of losing California or New York to Bush, took the advice of his most famous and newly-big-moneyed supporters and ran most of his campaign on Bush rage and not on Kerry love, spelled by bouts of milquetoasted silence, and the strategy – now back in full effect, with desperate acts all that seem left for him to attempt – failed utterly. There are many notches on The Wheel of Blame… but I think this covers about 40% of the possible winners.

What's The Hot Studio Story Now?

Bob Iger, at a television conference in London, off-handedly suggested for the first time in a long time that the Pixar deal may not happen for Disney. I get the impression from the report I read, he practically tilted his head to the side and said, "Whatever, dude."

And so, the Death To Eisner beat dies.

What's next?

I would guess that you will see a flurry of stories spurred by desperate Miramax staffers followed by the official annoncement of what is probably alreasy a done deal at Miramax/Disney. But Miramax has been out of the true indie business for a while, so the parade of "The Death Of The Indies" stories will ring hollow.

It looks like the revamp at Paramount is about to begin in earnest and while Sherry Lansing is not a potential target for Tom Freston, she may be ready to move on without any help. My guess would be that if Sherry goes, a revamp of all of her departments follows.

After that, the Sony integration of MGM and the 2006 negotiations with Joe Roth and his Revolution Studios becomes the hot story.

And about then, the succession options at Disney could heat up again as outside candidates pile up and start to get some traction with the media as alternative for Iger.

Call me when it's all over...

"A Work Of Entertainment"

I heard this phrase on The Michael Medved radio show as an alternative to "a work of art" and I thought it was a wonderfully appropriate turn of phrase. While I find it snobby and unkind to refuse to use the word "art" because you don't respect a particular effort, "a work of entertainment" covers a multitude of sins and still accuratey describes the effort and intent behind a lot of films.

I'm still not a fan of Medved or his politics, but this is a phrase worth coining.

Has Anyone Else Noticed...

... that Wimbledon could gross well under than $20 million domestically?

Thunderbirds grossed less than $7 million.

Brutal.

September 28, 2004

Motorcycle Sputtering

I find myself sympathetic, but wholly uninterested in the arguments that The Motorcycle Diaries is somehow dangerous because it celebrates the life of Che Guevara.

Firstly, as much as I don’t like Castro, it seems to me that Guevara died before he might have become as corrupt in spirit and action as El Jefe. Secondly, communism as a political ideology has run its course, so why would we still treat it like a threat? Finally, the movie in its own context, speaks to a youthful passion for honor and love… no matter where that might have gone.

But then again, there were a lot of people who could never get past the fact that Max presented Hitler as a troubled human being and not just as a pitchfork carrying devil.

I can sympathize with people who are passionately offended by anything that honors Che and his memory. But in the end, it feels a lot more like attacking A Beautiful Mind for petty inaccuracies than a legitimate reason to let a beautiful movie slip away for consideration in its own terms.

And just wait for the Alfred Kinsey bashing if other studios start seeing that bio-pic as a serious contender...

A New Lion Roars

While MGM is fading away and Miramax is retooling as an indie again, there is one indie player who is quietly building what they hope will be the next major mini in the world... Lions Gate.

The stock is going crazy because people are seeing the company, the one really big indie left on the board, as a takeover target. But Jon Feltheimer & Co. are behaving more like predators than prey. In the last week, they announced an aggressive plan to get further into the doc business, announced plans to raise over $125 million, and played the unexpectedly gruff John Travolta card in the Oscar race.

They also have the stability of a film library of over 6000 titles, which they add to by dozens every year.
The danger and the opportunity for this company is divining the next step. Do you spend more to make bigger hits? Do you lie in wait for a next Blair Witch? Do you remain happy to groove in an 8% return every year?

Of course, in a tight film biz world, these are great worries to have.

Shouldn't Everyone Be Revving Back Up By Now?

It's funny how everyone got back to work after the festivals and the holidays, but we are still in this tape delay before anything that actually qualifies as news happens.

Is reporting on An Unfinished Life and Proof moving out of 2005 actually news at all?

News would be a Employees Of Harvey list that indicated just who The Weinsteins want to stay on and who they want to make disappear before they have to pay any severance.

September 27, 2004

Box Office Monday

It’s time to put away the crying rags for September.

Virtually every box office story this month seems to want to apologize for these crappy films that open in September, as though the month is some sort of closet for the industry’s sins.

But give distributors, especially Jeff Blake and the entire team at Sony and Screen Gems, for turning late August/September into as good a time to open as movie as there is in the half of the year that is not the summer or holiday season.

In the last seven weekends, we have had eight opening weekends of more than $10 million:

Resident Evil: Apocalypse - $28 million
The Forgotten – est. $22 million
Sky Captain & The World of Tomorrow - $19 million
Exorcist: The Beginning - $18 million
Hero - $18 million
Without A Paddle - $14 million
Anacondas - $13 million
Cellular - $10 million

The five weekends of last October, presumably a better time to release a movie, delivered nine opening weekends over $10 million:

Scary Movie 3 – $48 million
Texas Chainsaw Massacre – $28 million
Kill Bill – $22 million
School of Rock – $20 million
Out of Time – $16 million
Radio – $13 million
Good Boy – $13 million
Intolerable Cruelty – $13 million
Runaway Jury – $12 million

Now, of course that list of openings is more impressive... but not that much more impressive. The average for this year’s late Aug/Sept. launches is about $18 million. The average for last October’s big openers is about $20.6 million. And if you take away the $48 million start for the big sequel, October’s average drops to $17 million.

And look at the titles… of last October’s winning openers only Good Boy and Radio could be seen as September-type titles, though Columbia was pretty high on Radio going into release last year. But the only movie with any star power this September – and we know that Jude Law and Gwyneth and Angelina can only open some movies – is Sky Captain. On the other hand, last October’s list is huge sequel, huge genre remake, QT’s 4th, Jack Black in a near perfect Jack Black vehicle, Denzel, Oscar winner Cuba Gooding, Jr. as a mentally challenged guy, a dog, George Clooney and Catherine Zeta Oscar Jones, and Dustin, Hackman and Cusack together.

My point being… shift the October schedules into September and you might see no difference at all… and if you did see a difference, it would probably be towards the better, with less competition for the Human Stains and House of The Deads of the world.