In the bowels of Columbia Pictures marketing, you will find the fabulous Wheel Of Blame. The wheel spins when films are perceived as having underperformed. Possible "winners" range from "bad date" to "horrible movie."
So this weekend, Hot Bloggers are fighting over the Wheel Of Success. Who should be credited (besides Columbia marketing, where the credit or blame really lies for any opening) with the estimated $21 million weekend for Guess Who?
Ashton Kutcher, whether anyone likes it or not, is a remarkable box office draw... more so because he has made almost nothing but shit. Both The Butterfly Effect and Just Married opened to more than $17 million. Both made my Worst 10 of their respective years.
Bernie Mac has previously been the lead star in one one film, Mr. 3000, which opened to just $8.7 million.
But it is true that the "urban" market has been flexing its muscles like crazy lately.
The exit polling numbers on Guess Who were:
59% under 25
54% Female 46% male
55% non-caucasian (strong ethnic mix of african american, latino, asian, etc)
Honestly, I'm not sure what the exit polling is on your average comedy release these days. But it would be silly to give Bernie Mac all the "non-caucasian" credit... or to give too much credit to Ashton Kutcher.
No one will ever have a real answer here. My personal guess would be that Sony would be estimating and grossing higher without Easter Sunday to compete with, putting the gross around $23 or $24 million... or almost the combination of the opening grosses of both Kutcher & Mac's last films, allowing a few million for crossover audiences. Seems fair to me.
I would say that Kutcher is a guy who can consistently open movies in the mid teens on his celebrity and Mac is a guy who can open movies around $5 million - $8 million on his celebrity.
And personally, I discount any draw from the remake of a great film... apparently, the power of it was thrown out in the screenplay and is completely neligible in the sell.
What do you think?