The Hot Blog

The Hot Blog has moved...

The Hot Blog is finally moving onto MCN turf.

The new URL is...

http://www.mcnblogs.com/thehotblog/

I'll be posting to both sites for a short while, but the sooner you start commenting over there instead of over there, the sooner the smooth transition will be complete...

Sometimes, You Just Have To Break Your Own Rules

More On Sin City

I wrote about Sin City in The Hot Button today…

I had a couple more thoughts that I thought I’d add here…

I got an argument from a very smart guy this morning who believes that this film will be the most influential film of this decade. And what that got me thinking about was, “Have smart people started believing that the medium is the message?” Part of the argument, which is at the core of all but a sliver of Sin City support is… “It is unlike anything you’ve seen.” But is that in any way important?

Are we fetishizing filmmaking tools instead of drama?

I really have no argument with having made Sin City. It is not evil. It is not a waste of money… it will be profitable. It is not going to melt the brains of small children.

But it finally hit me… Sin City is the male response to the McG/Barrymore Charlie’s Angels films. It aspires to even less as a social statement. But since the C&A films failed to actually offer “girl power,” in the end the answers are the same. Harsh violence vs. cutesy violence, more male objectification vs self-objectification, hyper frame-loading vs. hyper editing.

Charlie’s Angels: Full Frontal was unlike anything we had ever seen. And to be fair, so was Romeo + Juliet/Moulin Rouge… again, using many of the same tools.

On the flip side, there was nothing in Pulp Fiction we hadn’t seen before. We just hadn’t seen it for, depending on the part of the film, a decade or two or three or four.

The other analogy that I meant to point out was Lucas' recent run of Star Wars films. Those films were also CG, CG, CG… and the films are not given anywhere near enough credit, because of critical response, with breaking new ground in the technology. There are many arguments within the argument… I recently had a discussion with someone about how Lucas always made the cheapest decision instead of the best one… but big picture, Star Wars I-III made Sin City possible.

Meanwhile, MirrorMask is even more “you’ve never seen anything like it” than Sin City, but won’t get the embrace because it doesn’t pander to the geek thirst for sex and violence. (It also makes even less narrative sense and has even less emotionally connective characters, for the most part.)

The future of cinema is storytelling, not technology. When technology supports the storytelling, God bless… we all win. There will be better Sky Capatins and Sin Citys, using the technological opportunity to make real magic. Maybe it will be the Sin City sequel that is being talked about with QT as a full collaborator. I still argue that the 2 hour (aka, cut to the right length) Kill Bill might have been a masterpiece. QT understands character in a way that Rodriguez just doesn’t. And Rodriguez has visual skills that QT does not. I remain hopeful.

IFP/West Moving To Dump The IFP

Variety reports that Dawn Hudson is finally tired of having to put up with those fussy New Yorkers (and others) who built the Independent Feature Project into a force for independent cinema over the decade or so before IFP/LA was anything more significant than an occasional seminar in L.A.

Sadly, this is no surprise. Back in November, when I seemed to be the only journalist in the country interested in the back room battle, Dawn Hudson refused to even discuss what was going on. To her credit, Dawn's opposite number, IFP/NY's Michelle Byrd, did sit down with me, though she refused to be tough on Dawn while still acknowledging the tensions that have always been a part of the national organization since Dawn took a dominant position in L.A.

The four month old Hot Button story is here, though Peter Rice will be unhappy to see the story back in front of people, as he later made the case for Sideways being made for only $16 million so effectively that I never broached the subject again.

The sad part of this seperation is that New York's hands on efforts wil suffer. And NYC's substantive indie filmmaking clique will be unable to take sides, since the marketing opportunity in L.A. is too much to turn their backs on. Even worse... they can't blame this on the majors. Drat!

Photos: Bermuda International Film Fest 2005

I did a column on the festival in The Hot Button today.

BUt now it's time to get a real eyeful of the fun in this photo album...

Photos: The Gates

I've been busy not putting photos up on the blog because it was a pain in the ass... turns out that TypePad makes it a lot easier than I thought.

So here is the first batch of shots... from The Gates, by Christo.

Universal Gets Out Of The Paper Pushing Business

From Universal Pictures...

Dear Friend,

We are pleased to tell you about a change we are making in order to make a wider selection of publicity material available to you faster. Effective immediately, we will no longer be mailing to you printed press kits for our films. An expanded selection of our publicity materials will be available online for viewing or downloading at www.xxxxx.net.

Replacing traditional hard copy delivery of our content with digital delivery not only allows us to expand our materials, but to make them available much faster by eliminating the time it takes for duplication, assembling and shipping. As soon as new materials are available, you will be notified by email, with a link to the newly posted content.

If you haven't already registered for access to image.net, the process is very easy. Just go to www.xxxxx.net and follow the simple registrations instructions using the following referral code: XXXX.

Please note that the press kit for The Wedding Date is the last printed press kit you will receive from us.

If you have any questions please call xxxxx.net customer service at (888) xxx-1500 or email at [email protected].

Sincerely,

Universal Pictures Publicity Dept.

Crisis Schmisis!

"Sundance 2005: Crisis In Park City"

Oy.

The reason why there is a crisis in Park City is because guys like Kohler, whom I like, and Amy Taubin, who I really don't know, are busy screaming their danged fool heads off.

Sundance finally makes the forward thinking move of creating World Cinema categories and the softness of the first year's choices are A CRISIS!

It's called "the first year." Sundance has had a decade of indie filmmakers timing their films to end up on the Sundance schedule, if they are lucky enough to get in. The festival has the absolute top choice of indie films from new filmmakers who are not likely to break into Cannes. But that is not the case with World Cinema. Films launch in Cannes, Berlin, Venice, San Sebastian, etc, etc, etc... the machine isn't used to saving the best for Sundance.

That will change.

A few sales and that will change in a hurry.

As for all the Sundance parties... uh... stay off Main Street. There is only one theater there and nothing playing there isn't playing elsewhere. And the hype machines have not invaded any of the other theaters. If you are obsessing on Sundance obsessing on Paris Hilton, it is no one's fault but your own.

In other words... move along... nothing to see here...

The Guess Who Discussion

In the bowels of Columbia Pictures marketing, you will find the fabulous Wheel Of Blame. The wheel spins when films are perceived as having underperformed. Possible "winners" range from "bad date" to "horrible movie."

So this weekend, Hot Bloggers are fighting over the Wheel Of Success. Who should be credited (besides Columbia marketing, where the credit or blame really lies for any opening) with the estimated $21 million weekend for Guess Who?

Ashton Kutcher, whether anyone likes it or not, is a remarkable box office draw... more so because he has made almost nothing but shit. Both The Butterfly Effect and Just Married opened to more than $17 million. Both made my Worst 10 of their respective years.

Bernie Mac has previously been the lead star in one one film, Mr. 3000, which opened to just $8.7 million.

But it is true that the "urban" market has been flexing its muscles like crazy lately.

The exit polling numbers on Guess Who were:
59% under 25
54% Female 46% male
55% non-caucasian (strong ethnic mix of african american, latino, asian, etc)

Honestly, I'm not sure what the exit polling is on your average comedy release these days. But it would be silly to give Bernie Mac all the "non-caucasian" credit... or to give too much credit to Ashton Kutcher.

No one will ever have a real answer here. My personal guess would be that Sony would be estimating and grossing higher without Easter Sunday to compete with, putting the gross around $23 or $24 million... or almost the combination of the opening grosses of both Kutcher & Mac's last films, allowing a few million for crossover audiences. Seems fair to me.

I would say that Kutcher is a guy who can consistently open movies in the mid teens on his celebrity and Mac is a guy who can open movies around $5 million - $8 million on his celebrity.

And personally, I discount any draw from the remake of a great film... apparently, the power of it was thrown out in the screenplay and is completely neligible in the sell.

What do you think?

Early Box Office Analysis

Guess Who?
Ashton Kutcher.
Ashton Kutcher Who?
Ashton Kutcher who is in the midst of registering the biggest opening in his remarkable and still advancing career.

True, the opening of Guess Who won’t break any records. It won’t even break the Top Ten for March launches. It won’t break the Top Four of this March’s openers. It won’t even be the top March opening for a movie starring a white and a black star of higher and lower box office value. (That would be Bringing Down The House, aka The Reason Columbia Thought It Might Work To Open This Film At This Time Of Year.)

But $22-$26 million is pretty impressive for an Ashton Kutcher comedy that is getting no benefit from the cache of the original film and with Bernie Mac coming off of Mr. 3000 and with a gimmick that probably isn’t all that interesting anymore. (Note: Start on sexually-flipped remake of Norman… Is That You? in which Norman’s parents are gay and black and catch Norman with a white girl. How much to get Denzel & Wesley to play a couple?)

Then there is Ms. Bullock. She’s made fifteen films in which she starred, starting with Speed in 1994. Eleven of the fifteen films opened to between $10 million and $16.2 million. These are movie star numbers, but it is striking that she has never had even one $20 million opener… not even by fluke (See: Most of the cast of Ocean’s Eleven & Twelve). The final number for this weekend will smell of disappointment, but only because people aren’t looking too closely. The first Miss Congeniality opened to just $10 million on its way to $108 million domestic, one of only three $100 million grosser in Bullock’s career. (I’m not counting The Prince of Egypt in any of these numbers.)

The disappointment that is The Ring Two is being confirmed at the box office, this Friday off by more than 60% from last weekend’s not-so-impressive start. It may have opened stronger than The Pacifier, but it will gross less than the Disney comedy here at home.

On the other hand, Disney is suffering from trying to get Ice Princess gliding a little too close to Fox’s modest success, Robots… and even to its own The Pacifier. Overall, March is not a great month to be on the Disney schedule. Splash, Pretty Woman, Bringing Down The House and The Pacifier are the only March releases from the company that really have worked. And with the exception of The Pacifier, gentle sex and movie star names have been key to each of those successes. I love Joan Cusack, but she is not Julie Andrews and March is not a summer month on this side of the equator.

Million Dollar Baby continues to slug its way to $100 million… and Hitch remains the box office king for the year so far by double the gross of #2 to date, The Pacifier. Robots will close that 2-to-1 margin… but it won’t come within $50 million of the Will Smith vehicle. And I would guess that Hitch will remain the year’s leader by at least a $20 million margin (probably much more) until Star Wars: Episode Three passes Hitch’s domestic total on or about May 30th.